67%
Real operation within 2-4 weeks
Diplomatic efforts fail to produce breakthrough
↑ Rising
18%
Decision not yet made
48h diplomatic window remains open
→ Holding
10%
Pure coercion, never intended
Requires Islamic Republic capitulation to work
↓ Falling
5%
Bluff / embarrassing drawdown
Isfahan burial + Phase 1 complete make this unlikely
↓↓ Declining