Joint military operations commenced 28 February 2026. Real-time tracking of confirmed strikes, force disposition, and regional developments based on open-source intelligence.
At this level, the military force is complete, actively expanding, and no diplomatic off-ramp is visible. This is the point where the assessment shifts from analytical to actionable.
Anyone who needs to make decisions — journalists, policymakers, regional stakeholders, at-risk populations inside Iran — should assume operations are coming and begin preparing accordingly. The threshold is set here rather than higher because by the time final confirmation arrives, the window to act on it may already be closing.
At this level, EMCON (emissions control) has been observed — military aircraft transponders across the theater go dark simultaneously. There is no legitimate operational reason to go emissions-silent unless you are about to strike.
At 95%, operations are expected within 24 to 72 hours. This is not the first warning. It is confirmation of what was already warned at 93%.
| Category | Count |
|---|---|
| Aircraft carriers | 2 (Lincoln on station, Ford in Mediterranean) |
| Surface combatants | ~15 (all Bahrain ships at sea) |
| Land-based combat aircraft | 149 in CENTCOM, 113 at EGUL |
| Carrier-based aircraft | 108 (2 CVWs) |
| F-22 Raptors | 24 (11 Ovda + Patriot, 13 Lakenheath) |
| F-35A Lightning II | 48 at Lakenheath |
| F-15E Strike Eagles | 40 at Lakenheath (10 more pending) |
| AWACS + BACN | 6 E-3G + 5 E-11A (EMCON) |
| 160th SOAR | Deploying (Night Stalkers) |
| Tankers deployed | 128 (1/3 USAF fleet, 43 in Red Zone) |
| Tankers at Ben Gurion | 14 (9 KC-46A + 4+ KC-135R) |
| Airlift missions | 310 C-17/C-5 flights (+ 16 pending) |
| Total US aircraft | ~800 committed (largest since OIF) |
This assessment is based entirely on open-source intelligence: ADS-B and ACARS flight tracking data, commercial satellite imagery, analysis from the OSINT community including MATA (Military Air Tracking Alliance), DefenceGeek, and Armchair Admiral, and cross-referenced political and diplomatic developments. No classified information is used.
Probability is anchored to observable military indicators — the disposition, composition, scale, and movement of deployed forces. Political context is treated as supporting information only and does not independently drive probability changes. Each change in probability requires a specific, predefined trigger to be met. The framework is calibrated against the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer precedent, which provides a baseline for force requirements, tanker ratios, and pre-strike indicator sequencing.
100% means strikes have begun. Bombs are falling and CENTCOM has issued a statement. Until kinetic action is observed, there is always residual uncertainty because the decision to strike rests with one person and can be reversed up to the final moment.
A breakthrough deal could emerge. An unexpected crisis could shift the calculus. A classified stand-down order would be invisible to us. The 3 to 5 percent gap between our analytical ceiling and absolute certainty is not a hedge — it is an honest acknowledgment that we are watching observable indicators from the outside, not sitting in the Situation Room.